“It has the look of the beginning of the unraveling, but Haiti is so unpredictable, that’s as far as I would go,” said James Morrell, executive director of the Haiti Democracy Project, an organization that monitors American policy toward Haiti. “If you go back in Haitian history, when the students have gotten involved, it’s spelled the end of regimes. It was the end of the U.S. occupation, and they also helped get rid of Baby Doc. . .
But Morrell and others are concerned with the widespread cynicism growing in Haiti. The once-popular Aristide offered great promise in the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country, where more than half the population has no access to medicine or education and barely earns $1 a day.
“I don’t think that the average Haitian would get out and vote now,” Morrell said. “They’ve had it with elections after they’ve seen how elections have gone the last time.”
Haiti’s capital city was shut down on Friday by sporadic gunfire and burning barricades as supporters of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide took to the streets after a week of demonstrations calling for his ouster.
“Aristide was elected, and he will never leave power!” shouted groups supporting Aristide’s ruling Lavalas Family Party as they marched through the streets of Port-au-Prince. The demonstrations reached into the prosperous Petionville neighborhoods, the Carrefour and Champs de Mars areas.
Flights in and out of the international airport were canceled, embassies were closed and most of the city’s businesses and schools were shuttered. Despite the sound of gunshots, there were no immediate reports of deaths or attacks on opposition parties or journalists — the targets of past pro-Aristide violence.
“No one has been hurt yet — the protesters are carrying guns, but they’re not using them,” said Guy Delva, the Secretary General of the Association of Haitian Journalists. “The Lavalas Family went on the radio this morning and told their people not to attack or hurt people, just to get out and show their support for the government. Everything is just shut down right now, but there isn’t any violence that I’ve heard.
“But this is probably the worst it’s been this year,” he added. “We’ve seen these large demonstrations around the country this week, and now we’re seeing the Lavalas people come out all over the city. The reaction is getting bigger and bigger each time.”
Pro-government gangs, known as chimeras, typically take to the streets to support Aristide during tense political moments. On Friday, Lavalas leaders characterized their actions as a counterdemonstration to protect democracy.
“We are in the streets to control the situation. Aristide must continue in power,” pro-government activist Rene Civil, leader of the Youth for People’s Power organization, told local Radio Metropole.
“They protest to make people respect the democratic decision of the Haitian people and the Haitian constitution,” said Jonas Petit, acting head of Aristide’s Lavalas Family political party. “Aristide was elected for five years, and he will serve five years.”
Friday’s fiery backlash came after a week of demonstrations around the country protesting taxes and various economic ills that have plagued Haiti for most of the year. Students are protesting the Aristide government’s attempt to take control of the national university system. Since August, after a popular university official was forced to step down, the students have protested what they see as a government effort to control free speech on campus.
“There’s the real risk here of this situation deteriorating into total chaos or some kind of mini-civil war between gangs that aren’t strong enough to control the country,” said Robert Fatton, a Haiti expert who is chairman of the international government department at the University of Virginia.
“I think the opposition was emboldened this week by the turnout against Aristide, but I don’t think the opposition is strong enough to get rid of him without international support,” said Fatton. “And I don’t think Aristide can continue to govern without support from the international community. If they don’t mend their differences and work toward a solution, then it’s going to get worse.”
On Thursday, thousands of high school students and their supporters rallied in the provincial city of Petit Goave, southwest of the capital, holding aloft a bloody school uniform and protesting the shootings a day earlier of seven high school students by police.
The students, who were calling for Aristide to be replaced and protesting against an increased tax students must pay to take their final exams, were wounded as they tried to tear down the Haitian flag from the local police station.
The demonstrations are the latest signs of erosion in Haiti, whose government has been in a stalemate with opposition parties for two years over flawed elections in May 2000. Both sides in the dispute have resisted compromise, and the international community has withheld some $500 million in loans to the country until new elections are scheduled.
That seems more unlikely than ever. The terms of most of the country’s elected representatives expire at the end of the month, and an elections council essential for organizing elections next year has not been formed. Opposition groups have refused to join it until Aristide takes measures to improve security.
Despite these problems, Aristide still seems in firm control of the government and armed forces. The opposition remains divided among an upper class old guard, former Aristide allies and other institutions like the national university. There is no single leader with the clout or charisma to replace Aristide.
“It has the look of the beginning of the unraveling, but Haiti is so unpredictable, that’s as far as I would go,” said James Morrell, executive director of the Haiti Democracy Project, an organization that monitors American policy toward Haiti. “If you go back in Haitian history, when the students have gotten involved, it’s spelled the end of regimes. It was the end of the U.S. occupation, and they also helped get rid of Baby Doc.”
But Morrell and others are concerned with the widespread cynicism growing in Haiti. The once-popular Aristide offered great promise in the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country, where more than half the population has no access to medicine or education and barely earns $1 a day.
“I don’t think that the average Haitian would get out and vote now,” Morrell said. “They’ve had it with elections after they’ve seen how elections have gone the last time.”